\u3000\u7c73\u56fd\u5185\u3067\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u306a\u5bfe\u5317\u671d\u9bae\u5f37\u786c\u6d3e\u3068\u3057\u3066\u77e5\u3089\u308c\u308b\u6226\u7565\u56fd\u969b\u554f\u984c\u7814\u7a76\u6240(CSIS)\u306e\u97d3\u56fd\u62c5\u5f53\u4e0a\u7d1a\u7814\u7a76\u54e1\u3001\u30d3\u30af\u30bf\u30fc\u30fb\u30c1\u30e3\u6c0f\u306f\u3001\u5317\u671d\u9bae\u306e\u975e\u6838\u5316\u306f\u77ed\u671f\u9593\u306e\u9054\u6210\u304c\u56f0\u96e3\u306a\u76ee\u6a19\u3060\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u5317\u671d\u9bae\u6226\u7565\u306e\u6839\u672c\u7684\u306a\u8ee2\u63db\u3092\u63d0\u6848\u3057\u305f\u3002\u30b8\u30e7\u30fc\u30b8\u30fbW\u30fb\u30d6\u30c3\u30b7\u30e5\u653f\u6a29\u6642\u4ee3\u306b\u30db\u30ef\u30a4\u30c8\u30cf\u30a6\u30b9\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u4fdd\u969c\u4f1a\u8b70(NSC)\u306e\u30a2\u30b8\u30a2\u62c5\u5f53\u5c40\u9577\u3092\u52d9\u3081\u30016\u30ab\u56fd\u5354\u8b70\u306b\u95a2\u4e0e\u3057\u305f\u30c1\u30e3\u6c0f\u306f\u3001\u904e\u53bb20\u5e74\u4f59\u308a\u306b\u308f\u305f\u308a\u300c\u975e\u6838\u5316\u512a\u5148\u300d\u306e\u57fa\u8abf\u3092\u652f\u6301\u3057\u3066\u304d\u305f\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u3001\u300c\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30ea\u30f3\u30fb\u30a2\u30d5\u30a7\u30a2\u30fc\u30ba\u300d\u3078\u306e\u5bc4\u7a3f\u3067\u3001\u5f93\u6765\u306e\u653f\u7b56\u306e\u5931\u6557\u3092\u516c\u306b\u8a8d\u3081\u3001\u65b9\u5411\u8ee2\u63db\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3060\u3068\u4e3b\u5f35\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u30c1\u30e3\u6c0f\u306f28\u65e5(\u73fe\u5730\u6642\u9593)\u3001\u30ef\u30b7\u30f3\u30c8\u30f3\u7279\u6d3e\u54e1\u61c7\u8ac7\u4f1a\u3067\u3001\u300c\u5317\u671d\u9bae\u306e\u975e\u6838\u5316\u306f\u77ed\u671f\u9593\u306e\u9054\u6210\u304c\u96e3\u3057\u3044\u76ee\u6a19\u3068\u306a\u3063\u305f\u300d\u3068\u3057\u3001\u300c\u7c73\u56fd\u306f\u5317\u671d\u9bae\u3068\u306e\u300e\u51b7\u305f\u3044\u5e73\u548c(cold peace)\u300f\u3092\u691c\u8a0e\u3059\u3079\u304d\u3060\u300d\u3068\u8ff0\u3079\u305f\u3002\u30c1\u30e3\u6c0f\u306f\u3001\u904e\u53bb\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u9593\u3001\u7c73\u56fd\u306e\u5bfe\u5317\u671d\u9bae\u6226\u7565\u304c\u300c\u5b8c\u5168\u304b\u3064\u691c\u8a3c\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u7684\u306a\u975e\u6838\u5316(CVID)\u300d\u306b\u904e\u5ea6\u306b\u50be\u3044\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3068\u6307\u6458\u3057\u305f\u3002\u307e\u305f\u300c\u5317\u671d\u9bae\u304c\u6838\u80fd\u529b\u3092\u5897\u5f37\u3057\u7d9a\u3051\u308b\u4e2d\u3001\u4f55\u306e\u6210\u679c\u3082\u3042\u3052\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u975e\u6838\u5316\u306e\u30b9\u30ed\u30fc\u30ac\u30f3\u3060\u3051\u306b\u3053\u3060\u308f\u308b\u306e\u306f\u3001\u7c73\u56fd\u3092\u5b88\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306e\u671b\u307e\u3057\u3044\u65b9\u7b56\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u300d\u3068\u8a9e\u3063\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u30c1\u30e3\u6c0f\u306f\u3001\u5317\u671d\u9bae\u304c\u73fe\u5728\u7d0450\u767a\u306e\u6838\u5175\u5668\u3092\u4fdd\u6709\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3046\u3048\u3001\u8ffd\u52a0\u751f\u7523\u80fd\u529b\u307e\u3067\u5099\u3048\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001300\u56de\u4ee5\u4e0a\u306e\u30df\u30b5\u30a4\u30eb\u5b9f\u9a13\u30686\u56de\u306e\u6838\u5b9f\u9a13\u3092\u901a\u3058\u3066\u3001\u4e8b\u5b9f\u4e0a\u6838\u4fdd\u6709\u56fd\u306e\u6c34\u6e96\u306b\u9054\u3057\u305f\u3068\u8ff0\u3079\u305f\u3002\u3055\u3089\u306b\u300c\u975e\u6838\u5316\u306f\u653e\u68c4\u3067\u304d\u306a\u3044\u76ee\u6a19\u3060\u304c\u3001\u4eca\u3084\u300e\u9060\u3044\u672a\u6765\u306e\u76ee\u6a19\u300f\u3068\u306a\u3063\u305f\u300d\u3068\u3057\u3001\u300c\u3053\u308c\u3092\u524d\u63d0\u306b\u653f\u7b56\u3092\u898b\u76f4\u3059\u3079\u304d\u3060\u300d\u3068\u5f37\u8abf\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u30c1\u30e3\u6c0f\u304c\u653f\u7b56\u8ee2\u63db\u3092\u63d0\u6848\u3057\u305f\u80cc\u666f\u306b\u306f\u3001\u7c73\u56fd\u306e\u904e\u5ea6\u306a\u6226\u7565\u7684\u8ca0\u62c5\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002\u30c1\u30e3\u6c0f\u306f\u300c\u7c73\u56fd\u306f\u73fe\u5728\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u30ed\u30b7\u30a2\u3001\u30a4\u30e9\u30f3\u306a\u3069\u3068\u540c\u6642\u306b\u5bfe\u7acb\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u300d\u3068\u3057\u3001\u300c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u4fdd\u969c\u306e\u89b3\u70b9\u304b\u3089\u3001\u3042\u307e\u308a\u306b\u3082\u591a\u304f\u306e\u6575\u306b\u5bfe\u5cd9\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u300d\u3068\u8ff0\u3079\u305f\u3002\u3055\u3089\u306b\u300c\u6575\u306e\u6570\u3092\u6e1b\u3089\u3059\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308b\u300d\u3068\u3057\u3001\u5317\u671d\u9bae\u554f\u984c\u3092\u305d\u306e\u4e8b\u4f8b\u306b\u6319\u3052\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u305d\u306e\u4e0a\u3067\u3001\u5f93\u6765\u306e\u300c\u975e\u6838\u5316\u3092\u524d\u63d0\u3068\u3057\u305f\u4ea4\u6e09\u300d\u306b\u4ee3\u308f\u308a\u3001\u8ecd\u7e2e\u3001\u5b9f\u9a13\u5236\u9650\u3001\u5371\u6a5f\u7ba1\u7406\u306a\u3069\u73fe\u5b9f\u7684\u306a\u76ee\u6a19\u3092\u4e2d\u5fc3\u306b\u4ea4\u6e09\u3092\u518d\u69cb\u7bc9\u3059\u3079\u304d\u3060\u3068\u4e3b\u5f35\u3057\u305f\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u306b\u306f\u3001\u9577\u8ddd\u96e2\u5927\u9678\u9593\u5f3e\u9053\u30df\u30b5\u30a4\u30eb(ICBM)\u306e\u914d\u5099\u5236\u9650\u3001\u6838\u7269\u8cea\u306e\u8ffd\u52a0\u751f\u7523\u505c\u6b62\u3001\u6838\u30fb\u30df\u30b5\u30a4\u30eb\u5b9f\u9a13\u306e\u7981\u6b62\u306a\u3069\u3092\u4ea4\u6e09\u306e\u8b70\u984c\u306b\u636e\u3048\u308b\u3079\u304d\u3060\u3068\u63d0\u6848\u3057\u305f\u3002\u5317\u671d\u9bae\u304c\u3059\u3067\u306b\u4fdd\u6709\u3059\u308b\u6838\u80fd\u529b\u3092\u76f4\u3061\u306b\u6392\u9664\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u3060\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3082\u3001\u3055\u3089\u306a\u308b\u5897\u5f37\u3092\u6291\u5236\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u7c73\u56fd\u306e\u5b89\u5168\u4fdd\u969c\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u3088\u308a\u5373\u52b9\u6027\u306e\u3042\u308b\u5229\u76ca\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u7406\u7531\u304b\u3089\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3053\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u6226\u7565\u8ee2\u63db\u306b\u97d3\u56fd\u3084\u65e5\u672c\u306a\u3069\u306e\u540c\u610f\u3092\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3059\u305f\u3081\u306b\u306f\u3001\u7c73\u56fd\u304c\u3088\u308a\u5f37\u5316\u3055\u308c\u305f\u6291\u6b62\u529b\u3092\u63d0\u4f9b\u3057\u306a\u3051\u308c\u3070\u306a\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3002\u30c9\u30ca\u30eb\u30c9\u30fb\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u653f\u6a29\u304c\u6291\u6b62\u529b\u3092\u5f31\u3081\u308b\u65b9\u5411\u3078\u3068\u52d5\u3044\u3066\u3044\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u3053\u3046\u3057\u305f\u65b9\u5411\u3078\u306e\u6226\u7565\u8ee2\u63db\u306f\u975e\u73fe\u5b9f\u7684\u3060\u3068\u3044\u3046\u6307\u6458\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3001\u30c1\u30e3\u6c0f\u306f\u300c\u97d3\u7c73\u540c\u76df\u306f\u521d\u671f\u306e\u6df7\u4e71\u3092\u4e57\u308a\u8d8a\u3048\u3001\u300e\u73fe\u4ee3\u5316\u300f\u306e\u65b9\u5411\u3078\u5b89\u5b9a\u3057\u3066\u5b9a\u7740\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u300d\u3068\u3057\u3001\u300c\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u9632\u885b\u8cbb\u5206\u62c5\u91d1\u554f\u984c\u304c\u524d\u9762\u306b\u6d6e\u4e0a\u3059\u308b\u72b6\u6cc1\u3067\u3082\u306a\u3044\u300d\u3068\u8ff0\u3079\u305f\u3002\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u653f\u6a29\u767a\u8db3\u5f53\u521d\u306b\u63d0\u8d77\u3055\u308c\u305f\u300c\u5728\u97d3\u7c73\u8ecd\u306e\u524a\u6e1b\u300d\u3084\u300c\u5927\u5e45\u306a\u5897\u984d\u8981\u6c42\u300d\u3078\u306e\u61f8\u5ff5\u3068\u306f\u7570\u306a\u308a\u3001\u73fe\u5728\u306f\u540c\u76df\u304c\u69cb\u9020\u7684\u306b\u518d\u7de8\u3055\u308c\u308b\u6bb5\u968e\u306b\u5165\u3063\u305f\u3068\u3044\u3046\u610f\u5473\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u30c1\u30e3\u6c0f\u306f\u3001\u3053\u3046\u3057\u305f\u5b89\u5b9a\u3057\u305f\u57fa\u76e4\u304c\u3080\u3057\u308d\u5317\u671d\u9bae\u306e\u6838\u653f\u7b56\u8ee2\u63db\u306e\u6761\u4ef6\u306b\u306a\u308a\u5f97\u308b\u3068\u6307\u6458\u3057\u305f\u3002\u30df\u30b5\u30a4\u30eb\u9632\u885b\u5354\u529b\u306e\u5f37\u5316\u3001\u97d3\u7c73\u65e5\u306e\u5b89\u5168\u4fdd\u969c\u5354\u529b\u306e\u62e1\u5927\u3001\u8fce\u6483\u30df\u30b5\u30a4\u30eb\u306e\u5171\u540c\u751f\u7523\u306a\u3069\u3082\u4e26\u884c\u3057\u3066\u9032\u3081\u308b\u3079\u304d\u3060\u3068\u5f37\u8abf\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n
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